5 Reasons The World is Mostly Peaceful
A Permanent Revolution - Ch.18
In the time since World War 2, the world has been at its most peaceful. There are less wars and less people dying in wars each year than ever before. Why?
1-Rising cost of war and decreasing profits of war
Wealth is increasingly immaterial. Wealth is in knowledge and organizational capabilities not in raw materials. Wars used to be fought so rulers could take control of another region’s natural resources. This could even be as simple as the small wars fought by the European powers over control of tiny islands near Australia because they had lots of spices.
Today, most developed countries’s profits come from their knowledge and their organizational capabilities. If China invades and takes over New York City, they won’t actually gain very much. The banks will have gold stores (if there are any) sent elsewhere, and all the important bankers will be long gone before the Chinese land on shore. All they gain are the buildings and the land. Relative to the cost of launching an attack, that’s not a worthy financial return.
2-The benefits of peace have increased dramatically
International trade used to be scarce, so being at war didn’t affect you too much. Nowadays, if country X depends on country Y for its wheat imports, when country Z attacks country Y, country X is seriously affected also. That same relationship hold true in a circular fashion across much of the globe.
Every country is dependent on another for a number of goods and services. By starting a war, you interrupt this chain and are guaranteed to hurt your own economy in some way you may or may not foresee.
Today, being at war hurts FDI and trade options, which can ruin an economy. One of the best predictors of a country’s economic success is their National Credit Rating, not their natural resources. Being a reliable, trustworthy country to lend money to allows you to borrow more money at better rates. That is more valuable than 99% of natural resource supplies. It’s literally the reason kings and queens were overtaken by bankers and bureaucrats.
By starting a war, you become less reliable. Lending money to a country at war is more risky, meaning the borrowing terms will be stricter and less favorable. In other words, it’s more expensive to borrow money when you’re at war. If money is expensive, everything is expensive.
3-No real independent states
If I go to war, you go to war…
Look at the conflicts happening now. It’s clear that no country can operate for its own sake independently. For example, it’s clear that Israel is dependent on the United States to defend itself. That means, BB needs to negotiate internally on policy and also externally with Joe. Israel cannot act as an entirely independent state. The same stands true for Hamas who needs to act in accordance with Iran. And Iran needs them to act in accordance with Russia, or whoever else. When two states appear to go to war, many more are quickly dragged in.
4-The potential of mutual destruction
This one is pretty clear. Since the creation of nuclear weapons, superpowers are extremely cautious when entering armed conflict. The risk is so unbelievably high that to justify starting a war, there needs to be a major issue. Simple disagreements are not enough to start war anymore because it could very easiy turn to global destruction.
5-Universal belief that war is bad and also avoidable
Premodern rulers mostly believed it was either good or it was unavoidable. Today, most leaders believe neither of those things. There are exceptions, but relative to premodern times, there is infinitely less war. Since WW2, more people globally die annually by suicide, obesity and car crashes than from war.
It at least appears that most leaders realize there are bigger problems to solve with better payouts, less cost, less risk and less pain.
Question of The Day
Do you think war is always avoidable? Is there ever good reason to take a life?
Your Friend,
Noah “BigNerd” Sochaczevski